low-probability, high-impact outcomes

There's an interesting Earth System Dynamics Discussion paper presenting a a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WG1 to the assessment and communication of climate change risks. Essentially, one can estimate the risk of some outcome by considering the likelihood of that outcome multiplied by the impact of that outcome. This is illustrated…

Intensive and extensive risk

What is a 5x5 Risk Matrix & How to Use it?

Navigating Risk: The Importance of Planning for Low Probability, High Impact Risks — Proxxi

The missing risks of climate change

Probability-impact assessment - Praxis Framework

New tools and methods for High-Impact Low-Probability (HILP) event analysis - #SINTEFblog

Monte Carlo Simulation: History, How it Works, and 4 Key Steps

Risk Assessment: Likelihood & Impact - Pratum

Preparing for High-Impact, Low-Probability Events: Lessons from Eyjafjallajokull (Chatham House Report) (Chatham House Report, January 2012) - Bernice Lee; Felix Preston; Gemma Green: 9781862032538 - AbeBooks

Using Probability – Impact Matrix in Analysis and Risk Assessment Projects

New method to analyze low-probability, high-risk events such as earthquakes, pandemics

Risk Impact/Probability Charts - Learning to Prioritize Risks

Dr Valérie Masson-Delmotte @valmasdel.bsky.social on X: Low-likelihood, high-impact outcomes could occur at global and regional scales even for global warming within the very likely range for a given greenhouse emissions scenario. The